Saturday, September 4, 2010

jobs, the great recession, and understating unemployment

Check out the chart I found (click chart for a larger image). It looks at employment changes in different recessions. There are problems with comparing labor markets from different time periods. However, these problems are minimized by looking at a) employment (unemployment numbers can get funky) and b) percentage losses in jobs (this sort of normalizes the data).

You can see why the recent downturn was nicknamed the Great Recession.

There are too many problems with the unemployment rate for it to be very useful. In a downturn the unemployment rate understates unemployment. This understatement is even worse in a severe downturn like the recent Great Recession.

If you can put up with a bit of an explanation as to why, I'll show you some numbers that give a better picture of how bad things are.

A person is only classified as "unemployed" if that person a) did not work for one hour or more for pay in the week previous to the survey and b) also actively sought employment.

[NOTE: This definition of unemployment has absolutely nothing to do with whether someone is eligible for unemployment benefits.]

This overlooks some people like part-timer workers who lost full-time jobs or desire full-time jobs. In a sense they are only partially employed and therefore are also partially unemployed. The unemployment stats make no allowance for these folks.

If someone gives up looking for work (the so-called discouraged worker), or is otherwise able and willing to work but didn't look for a job, then this person is not counted as unemployed. Most would consider people like this as part of the labor force but they are not counted as such.

Now let's see how this biases the numbers.

The published unemployment rate for August 2010 is 9.6%. (BTW, 5.5 of this 9.6, a majority of the official unemployed, have been unemployed for 15 weeks or more. This is quite high but still doesn't get at the severity of the problem.)

If you include all people who are out of work but willing and able to work, whether actively looking for a job or not, the unemployment rate would climb to 11.0%.

If you also include those who took part-time rather than full-time jobs for economic reasons, then the unemployment rate would jump to 16.7%.

9.6% vs. 16.7%. A more reasonable statistic of unemployment would be over 7 percent points higher. In a sense this means unemployment may be 74% higher than the official rate indicates.

It ain't even close.

Be blessed,
RB

[source of statistics]

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Saturday, August 28, 2010

stealing from the best -- aggregated china posts #3


I'm "aggregating" posts again. Three posts are a continuation of MissBeee's series about our China trip. She has some great pics:

1) Xi'an: Er.
2) Going South.
3) Tiger Leaping Gorge.

Plus another post from Mrs. B. about last weekend in NH:

A month of this and that.....

The pic above is at the guesthouse in Lijiang.

Earlier posts about our trip to China:
a great wall day
aggregated post on china trip
someone's grandparents went to china
aggregated china post #2

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

more on birthright citizenship--what is the point?

This is a follow-up to a recent post on birthright citizenship. The 14th Amendment clearly gives citizenship to a child born in the United States. This right does not depend on the legal status of the parents. The courts have a 100+ year record of consistently upholding this right.

Why debate whether babies of illegal aliens born here should have citizenship? It is a settled issue with the courts. This constitutional right to citizenship cannot be changed with legislation. Only an amendment to the Constitution can change it.

Such an amendment to the Constitution will not happen.

So why have the debate? What is the point?

The point is for so-called conservatives in the GOP to curry favor with angry white voters already voting for the GOP. The point is for the GOP to permanently lose socially-conservative Hispanic voters to the Democrats. This is in not in the interest of the conservative movement but is in the interest of individuals going after the angry white-guy vote.

Time to move on.

RB's related posts:
gop out for a generation?
undocumented riches

Sunday, August 15, 2010

here's why koufax improves my productivity

Animal and human behaviour
Manager's best friend:
Dogs improve office productivity

Aug 12th 2010

THERE are plenty of studies which show that dogs act as social catalysts, helping their owners forge intimate, long-term relationships with other people. But does that apply in the workplace? Christopher Honts and his colleagues at Central Michigan University in Mount Pleasant were surprised to find that there was not much research on this question, and decided to put that right. They wondered in particular if the mere presence of a canine in the office might make people collaborate more effectively. And, as they told a meeting of the International Society for Human Ethology in Madison, Wisconsin, on August 2nd, they found that it could. To reach this conclusion, they carried out two experiments. In the first, they brought together 12 groups of four individuals and told each group to come up with a 15-second advertisement for a made-up product. Everyone was asked to contribute ideas for the ad, but ultimately the group had to decide on only one. Anyone familiar with the modern “collaborative” office environment will know that that is a challenge. Some of the groups had a dog underfoot throughout, while the others had none. After the task, all the volunteers had to answer a questionnaire on how they felt about working with the other—human—members of the team. Mr Honts found that those who had had a dog to slobber and pounce on them ranked their team-mates more highly on measures of trust, team cohesion and intimacy than those who had not. In the other experiment, which used 13 groups, the researchers explored how the presence of an animal altered players’ behaviour in a game known as the prisoner’s dilemma. In the version of this game played by the volunteers, all four members of each group had been “charged” with a crime. Individually, they could choose (without being able to talk to the others) either to snitch on their team-mates or to stand by them. Each individual’s decision affected the outcomes for the other three as well as for himself in a way that was explained in advance. The lightest putative sentence would be given to someone who chose to snitch while the other three did not; the heaviest penalty would be borne by a lone non-snitch. The second-best outcome came when all four decided not to snitch. And so on. Having a dog around made volunteers 30% less likely to snitch than those who played without one. The moral, then: more dogs in offices and fewer in police stations.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

she has the founding fathers, american traditions and values, even ronald reagan on her side.

The Wall Street Journal
OPINION | AUGUST 11, 2010

The Case For Birthright Citizenship

Since the abolition of slavery, we have never denied citizenship to any group of children born in the U.S. Why change now?

By LINDA CHAVEZ

Republican leaders in Congress are now flirting with changing portions of the 14th Amendment—which grants citizenship to "all persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof"—to deny citizenship to children born here to illegal immigrants.

The idea of modifying birthright citizenship has been around for decades but was previously relegated to the fringes of the immigration restriction movement. Yet in recent days, Sens. John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Jon Kyl have embraced the idea; Senate and House GOP leaders Mitch McConnell and John Boehner have proposed hearings.

Repealing birthright citizenship is a terrible idea. It will unquestionably jeopardize the electoral future of the GOP by alienating Hispanics—the largest minority and fastest-growing segment of the U.S. population. More importantly, ending birthright citizenship would fundamentally change what it means to be an American.

Proponents of repeal argue that the 14th Amendment was passed after the Civil War to guarantee citizenship to freed slaves, and that it was never intended to grant rights to the offspring of illegal aliens. But this argument is a non sequitur. At the time of the adoption of the amendment, there was no category of "illegal alien" because immigration was unrestricted and unregulated. If you secured passage to the United States, or simply walked across the open border with Mexico or Canada, you could stay permanently as a resident alien or apply to be naturalized after a certain number of years. And if you happened to give birth while still an alien, your child was automatically a citizen—a right dating back to English common law.

The most serious challenge to birthright citizenship for the children of aliens came in 1898, and it involved a class of aliens who were every bit as unpopular as present-day illegal immigrants: the Chinese. Like most illegal immigrants today, the Chinese came here to work as common laborers, eagerly recruited by employers but often deeply resented by the workers with whom they competed. This popular resentment, coupled with racial prejudice, led to America's first immigration restriction law, the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. It was followed by successively more restrictive federal and state laws that denied Chinese aliens—and, later, other Asians—the right to own property, to marry, to return to the U.S. if they left, or to become American citizens.

With anti-Chinese alien sentiment still high, the Supreme Court took up the case U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark in 1898. Born in San Francisco to alien parents who later returned to China, Wong travelled to his parents' homeland for a visit and was denied re-entry on his return in 1895. The government argued that Wong had no right to birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment because his parents remained "subjects of the emperor of China" not subject to U.S. jurisdiction, even while residing in California at the time of his birth. In a 7-2 vote, the Supreme Court ruled otherwise.

The court found that the only persons Congress intended to exclude from birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment were children born to diplomats—an ancient, universally recognized exception even under common law; Indians, who by treaty were considered members of sovereign nations; and children of an occupying enemy. "The amendment, in clear words and in manifest intent, includes the children born within the territory of the United States of all other persons, of whatever race or color, domiciled within the United States," wrote Justice Horace Gray for the majority. To hold otherwise, he noted, would be to deny citizenship to the descendants of English, Irish, Germans and other aliens who had always been considered citizens even if their parents were citizens of other countries. For more than a 100 years, the court has consistently upheld this analysis.

Our history has been largely one of continuously expanding the community of people regarded as Americans, from native-born whites to freed slaves to Indians to naturalized citizens of all races and ethnicities. Since the abolition of slavery, we have never denied citizenship to any group of children born in the U.S.—even when we denied citizenship to their parents, as we did Asian immigrants from 1882 to 1943. This expansive view of who is an American has been critical to our successful assimilation of millions of newcomers.

Conservatives should not betray these values based on a misreading of American history and legal precedent. Instead of amending the Constitution to eliminate "anchor babies"—the ugly term opponents of birthright citizenship use to describe these U.S. citizens—Republicans should be helping them become good Americans.

Ms. Chavez is chairman of the Center for Equal Opportunity in Falls Church, Va. and was director of public liaison in the Reagan White House.

RB's related posts:

undocumented riches
gop out for a generation?

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

forty years later

RB met an attractive, non-short young woman at Freshmen Orientation on Tuesday the 11th of August, 1970. That evening we had enchiladas for dinner together.

Tonight, August 11th, forty years later, RB took this same attractive, non-short woman out for enchiladas. If memory serves me correct, The Cactus Grill is better than dorm food.

Friday, August 6, 2010

celebration! | nymrsb on xanga


Someone reached a milestone on Wednesday:

Celebration! | nymrsb on Xanga

Sunday, August 1, 2010

this covers all the basics - one minute sermon

Try to keep up with her:



[ht her]