a post-election thought

The early Christians did not say in dismay: ‘Look what the world has come to,’ but in delight, ‘Look what has come to the world.’

- E. Stanley Jones, Abundant Living

(originally posted here)

the first kenyan-american president

One of my advisees, a wonderful young lady from Kenya, came into my office this week, her feet more than a few inches above the floor, beaming a huge, even bigger than usual smile. One look at her and I asked, "Happy there's a Kenyan-American President?"

"YES! We should forget calling him an African-American. He is Kenyan-American!"

To tease her a bit I replied, "Shouldn't we call him a Luo-American?" knowing full well that she wasn't Luo.

"No, Kenyan-American is just fine."

When CNN called the election for Obama, it was about 7 a.m. Wednesday morning in Kenya. The President of Kenya declared Thursday a national holiday.



It wasn't just Kenyans. I heard that some found it hard to sleep election night because of the noisy celebrations of African students.

Africans are generous people and like to share their joy.

Be blessed!
RB

private vs. public response to katrina

A colleague of mine, SLU's very own Steve Horwitz, was interviewed by John Stossel of ABC's 20/20 about the public vs. private response to Hurricane Katrina.

Click here to see the video.

obama victory brings bad news

The Dow falls 486 points, a stock market drop of 5%, the day after the election. Did Obama's victory cause this? Nope. Market traders knew he was going to be elected over a month ago.

There is other bad news though. This video shows the tragic aftermath of the Obama victory:




Be blessed.
RB

P.S. Last week, "analysts" in the media claimed the Fed changing the target for the federal funds interest rate spurred a one-day stock market rally. Nope. Market participants already anticipated that obvious move long before.

at least this didn't happen yesterday

Sorry I didn't find the one below soon enough to help you with this election. You can file it away for future use.

and now the steelers - is dp happy?

Forget prediction markets. The best predictor of 17 of the last 18 presidential elections has been the team which wins the last home game of the Washington Redskins before the election. A win by the visiting team foretells a change in the party holding the presidency.

The only time in the past 75 years where the football game failed to predict correctly was in 2004. John Kerry failing to win Ohio ruined a perfectly good streak.

Last night the Pittsburgh Steelers stomped the home team Redskins 23-6. Obama wins.

I hope Mr. Paladin enjoyed the game.

abc's 20/20 explains intrade - the prediction market.

where's the 364 from?

Prediction markets have Obama with 364 electoral votes against McCain's 174.

Below are Intrade.com's chances of winning each of the "close" states below. Note that these percentages are the betting odds of winning, NOT a prediction of the percentage of the actual votes cast. Percentages in bold are states McCain is expected to win.

There is only one close state race in terms of bets: Missouri. That is a true toss up.

State (votes)~~Obama/McCain
Florida (27) ) ~~ 80% / 22%
Pennsylvania (21) ~~ 89% / 11%
Ohio (20) ) ~~ 83% / 20%
Georgia (15) ) ~~ 21% / 75%
North Carolina (15) ~~ 70% / 37%
Virginia (13) ) ~~ 86% / 14%
Missouri (11) ) ~~ 51% / 45%
Indiana (11) ) ~~ 41% / 64%
Nevada (5) ) ~~ 82% / 15%
New Mexico (5) ~~ 92% / 11%
North Dakota (3) ~~ 29% / 73%
Montana (3) ~~ 29% / 79%
[as of 12:00PM ET]




Iowa Electronic Market, the University of Iowa's well-known prediction market, has Obama with a seven point vote share margin over McCain. Winner-Take-All bets, it is 10-to-1 Obama.

gop out for a generation?

This presidential election was always the Democrats' to lose. They won't. Obama will take at least 353 electoral college votes. (My bet is 364, see Intrade.com.) Even if McCain took all the so-called toss-up states, he would still not have the 270 votes needed to win. Democrats will increase control of the House and Senate.

I am afraid this election may be a turning point, as bad as 1964, in terms of the GOP becoming a minority party for a very long time.

In 1964 the Civil Rights Act was passed. A majority of Democrat Senators, mostly from the South, opposed the bill which was only passed because of the courageous stand of Senate Republicans. In 1964, Republican Candidate Goldwater of Arizona voted against the Civil Rights Act. He carried only his home state and a few states in the Old South. African-American voters were up to that time pretty equally divided between the two parties. It has been about 90% for the Democrats since. Couple this with President Nixon's Southern Strategy a few years later, and Black Americans permanently became the strongest supporters of the Democrat Party.

Now the GOP is offending an even larger minority group, a group of generally socially conservatives which should be drawn to the Republicans. President Bush was making inroads but Republicans have lost the Hispanic vote due to the vocal opposition to immigration reform. The irony is that McCain is losing states like Colorado and especially New Mexico because of the reaction of Hispanics despite supporting immigration reform. Immigration reform almost killed his chances for his party's nomination in late 2007.

The primary, but certainly not the only, motivation for the shrill and hostile reaction to immigration reform is racist. Hispanics recognize the racism, or at least the appeal to racism by outspoken Republicans.

Barry Goldwater was not racist and had principled reasons for opposing the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Not all who oppose immigration reform today are racist, but the appeal to bigotry should not be denied. Even if you are a Republican who does deny it, you should find the long term impact on our political process tragic.

If you are a Democrat, try not to gloat over the self-inflicted wound of the now, and for a long time to come, minority party.

Be blessed.
RB

P.S. For an interesting take on immigration, please read her post from last week.

always thoughtful, always fair

Peggy Noonan is one of my favorite writers. Her column published in today's Wall Street Journal (p.A11):

Obama and the Runaway Train