Sunday, March 20, 2011

no-fly zone buzz kill

I find it hard to see how the no-fly zone over Libya is going to drive Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi from power. Maybe a couple of weeks ago it would have made sense, but since then pro-Gaddafi forces have recaptured most of the rebel-held cities. The no-fly zones won't help those folks. Even if Benghazi is not retaken, Gaffafi has control over most of the country and will stay in power.

This military strike does not seem to have been thought through. No wonder DOD Secretary Gates opposed the no-fly zone. Most military people do not relish the thought of putting their people in harm's way, to spend hundreds of millions on armaments that kill, to merely send a message.

Think I'm wrong about the no-fly zone? Well you can put your money where your mouth is. At Intrade.com, a prediction market (i.e., an Irish betting site), you can buy "stock" in Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011. The current price is $6.67 to get $10 if Gaddafi is gone. If you are correct then you would make a 50% profit!

As you can see from the chart below (red marks price), a week ago the price was $4, but after yesterday's hoopla over tomahawks being fired, the price soared up to $8. Of course, the smart money is moving in and the price is falling. I suspect it will be back to $4 or less in a week or so.


Will I put my money where my blog is? Nah. It is illegal and therefore too much trouble to get money to and from Intrade.com.

Be blessed.
RB

3 comments:

Kwabena said...

Agreed. However, it's better than never. The best case scenario is a sustained no-fly zone, secret financing and arms from the Arab League and a gradual and a renewed push by the rebels back into Tripoli.
I think 300+ tanks (plus others of course)should do the trick.
I don't think the implosion everyone is waiting will happen till the rebels are outside of Tripoli.

RB said...

IMHO, A) the Arab League will do nothing; B) Tanks, artillery, trained troops have the edge over rebels. I have had trouble finding out if tanks and artillery are being targeted. That is, is the no-fly zone a no-drive zone? "Interdiction" is threatened.

John Delaney said...

Thanks much for including our market data.