Monday, November 3, 2008

where's the 364 from?

Prediction markets have Obama with 364 electoral votes against McCain's 174.

Below are Intrade.com's chances of winning each of the "close" states below. Note that these percentages are the betting odds of winning, NOT a prediction of the percentage of the actual votes cast. Percentages in bold are states McCain is expected to win.

There is only one close state race in terms of bets: Missouri. That is a true toss up.

State (votes)~~Obama/McCain
Florida (27) ) ~~ 80% / 22%
Pennsylvania (21) ~~ 89% / 11%
Ohio (20) ) ~~ 83% / 20%
Georgia (15) ) ~~ 21% / 75%
North Carolina (15) ~~ 70% / 37%
Virginia (13) ) ~~ 86% / 14%
Missouri (11) ) ~~ 51% / 45%
Indiana (11) ) ~~ 41% / 64%
Nevada (5) ) ~~ 82% / 15%
New Mexico (5) ~~ 92% / 11%
North Dakota (3) ~~ 29% / 73%
Montana (3) ~~ 29% / 79%
[as of 12:00PM ET]




Iowa Electronic Market
, the University of Iowa's well-known prediction market, has Obama with a seven point vote share margin over McCain. Winner-Take-All bets, it is 10-to-1 Obama.

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