Friday, October 17, 2008

at 5-to-1 our next president is . . . .

Real-time election trades, an example of what economists call "prediction markets," are the best presidential election predictors. Here are the results from Intrade. Overall, the odds are 5-to-1 in favor of Obama. That is, a $1 bet on Obama costs 83.4 cents while a $1 bet on McCain costs 16.5 cents. This "market" for betting on elections state-by-state is more accurate than opinion polls.

Looks like an electoral college landslide for Obama. IMHO, only five states are in play as of today. Leaning toward Obama are Missouri (11) and North Carolina (15) while McCain has the edge in North Dakota (3), West Virginia (5) and Indiana (11). (By leaning, the favorable odds are "only" 2-to-1 or less.) That is a total of only 45 electoral college votes. McCain could win them all and still come up way short.

The odds have always favored Obama but it was close until the financial meltdown in September. You can click the "30-day price chart" button below to see this.

This is the coolest map on the election I've seen. You can click on a state for its results in real time.

If you disagree, then make a trade and put your money where your mouth is.

P.S. Last December 15th, I confidently predicted here that this year's election would be won by the Democrat ticket. All they had to do was win Ohio this time around. Obama has very solid leads in all the states that Kerry won in 2004 PLUS solid leads in Colorado (9), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), and Virgina (13). If Obama just wins any three of these four states then he doesn't have to win Ohio's 20 votes. It is an Obama slam dunk. Game Over.

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