Saturday, December 15, 2007

gop should pack it in though it's only '07

Source: Wikipedia

The November 2008 election is already over. A Democrat, most likely Clinton, will be president. Look at the above electoral college map from 2004. If Kerry had won Ohio with its 20 electoral college votes, he would have been president. With Ohio going for Kerry, he'd have had 271 votes to Bush's 266.

Do you really think Clinton will lose any state that the more liberal Kerry won in 2004? So all she has to do is win Ohio. Remember: other than Ohio, the red states above do not matter. A Clinton-Obama ticket would certainly do the trick in Ohio.

Below is a cool map with states and DC resized to reflect their relative size in the electoral college.
Source: Election Results Maps

1 comment:

joreko said...

You should ask President Dewey what he thinks of this currently plausible prediction.

What the country needs is a national popular vote for President.

The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President arises from the winner-take-all rule (currently used by 48 of 50 states) under which all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in the state. If the partisan divide in a state is not initially closer than about 46%-54%, no amount of campaigning during a brief presidential campaign is realistically going to reverse the winner of the state during a short presidential campaign. As a result, presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the concerns of voters of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Instead, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of “battleground” states. As a result, 88% of the money and visits (and attention) is focused on just 9 closely divided battleground states: Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. Fully 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the country is left out.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

A national popular vote is the way to make every person’s vote equal and to guarantee the White House to the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states. The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill is enacted in a group of states possessing 270 or more electoral votes, all of the electoral votes from those states would be awarded, as a bloc, to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has 366 legislative sponsors in 47 states. It has been signed into law in Maryland. Since its introduction in February 2006, the bill has passed by 12 legislative houses (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, New Jersey, and North Carolina, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, and California).